If McCain Wins All Hell Will Break Loose in Iraq

The title is total supposition but follow me through the argument and I think you will agree with the conclusion that Iraq is on a knife edge that hinges on the outcome of the US election.  Consider first the players – you’ve got the Kurds in the north who are generally tolerant of our presence but would prefer we were gone so the can finish with kicking the Arabs and Persians off their oil territory in the north.  You’ve got the Sunni’s in the middle who’ve been fighting us tooth and nail for five years and who’s only marginal benefit from our presence is preventing the Shia from taking over completely.
Then you’ve got the Shiite government which is essentially the Iranian-backed Badr Brigades, which we support and who would, in their hearts like us gone, but get a lot of checks and security from us.  Finally you’ve got the other Shiite group,  Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi army.  It is this last group that will rule Iraq when we leave.  It is only a matter of time, time which they are bidding until the right moment.

The Mahdi army proved that it can take on the government (i.e. the Badr corps) a few weeks ago when they embarrassed the government’s attempt to raid their territory and shut them down.  But Muqtada called off his men and brokered a cease-fire which Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was only too willing to accept given that his troops had neither the training nor the will to shoot down their country men.  And really who could blame them.  They’re mostly there for the paycheck since our lovely neo-liberal economic polices have decimated their economy along with the damage of the war.  They don’t actually want to BE our stooges.  So Muqtada is waiting.    

There are two potential outcomes that every leader in Iraq knows will happen and is waiting for the result.  Either the Democrats win and begin the process of bringing our troops home or John McCain wins the troops stay until we bankrupt ourselves. I’m not saying that bad things won’t happen if US troops cease occupying Iraq.  We’ve set up this wobbly Jenga tower and it’s going to topple over no matter what.  But if we leave there is a chance that the Shiites will broker a power sharing deal after a scrap to determine the top dog.  But if John McCain wins and we stay then Muqtada al-Sadr and the Madhi army, along with the Sunni’s and everybody else are left with one option – Let all hell break loose and hope to force us out.  If McCain wins, he’ll get his war alright.  All he can handle, because a serious war of liberation will start on all sides of the Iraqi religious divide.

All of these insights, to some extent, come from
Prof. Juan Cole's "Informed Comment" Blog except the main conclusion of this diary.  That blog should be daily reading for us all.

Cheers, Doolittle